129731781836565000_145Central China Securities Research Director Dr Yuan Xuya (source: hexun.com) content of this article to the author should be invited hexun.com's column, exclusive authorized hexun.com publishing. Hexun.com invites artists to open column, providing readers with anecdotes, Bo.
Stay tuned readers focus on updates. 2012 inertial decline of China's economic growth will continue.'S main problem is that in the current economic momentum in the social desire for money is not reduced, and funds to help the real economy is to inventory, external market remained awkward stage, the entire social economy in a State of chaos, policy direction and to clear the path. 2012
WOW золото, China's macro-not to institutional change, will continue to be the set of economic development in ChinaKnots and exposing the process, but the deep problems of economic growth has become increasingly clear. China's macro-economy needs reform to release energy, at present the trend is only implied in the midst of transition. About the State of China's macroeconomic operations had now falling off like snow, but most fell to the ground with no trace to be the consistency of the community consensus. With the reality of China's macroeconomic operations is expected to be strongStrong collision. Current situation of China's macroeconomic operations (table below) GDP 8.85%8.94% source: consistency of the securities market weekly forecast, Zhongyuan Institute of securities and consolidation, GDP monthly Securities Institute for macroeconomic forecasting economic growth as the Central Plains, December industrial output last year to keepSteady increase in heavy industry large recovery in light industry. According to our calculation models, December GDP is 8.94%, for January, economy continues downward trend, but a pick-up in consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, temporarily slowed the speed of the economic downturn from the perspective of investment
tera gold, according to estimates, December China's fixed asset investment of the monthActual rates of up to 17.61%, 3.65% drop than per cent in November. Three major industrial investment continues to render differentiation, in which primary industry collapse in investment in the month, second industry investment largely stable, because the primary industry and tertiary industry investment share of the total investment in fixed assets at around 55%, so its on theDecline in overall investment has played a prominent role. Consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods in China in December grew by 18.1%, increased by November, under the influence of the lunar new year, luxury consumption in the December turning heads douzeng, necessities of life also has a large upgrade, while growth in durable goods in November were flat, consumption of striking in the month sectionJapanese color. Imports, growth fell sharply by November in December. Seen from the trend, 60% per cent of total imports in the month of the general decline of trade caused by the larger overall significant reduction in imports. Under United States effect of a weak economic recovery, declines in December, China's export situation has stabilised, exports in the month grew by 13.4%,Compared with November just drop 0.4%. Expected in January growth in China's exports 9.6%, imports grew by 10.4%. Inflation in December CPI slowing down speed of main structural effect is that food prices rose; PPI continues the recent trend of accelerated down, mainly due to the current process of enterprises in active inventoryEffects, weak social demand, product price increase space, production raw material prices and excess supply in the upper sector price pressures as a result of impact, while factory gate inflation was further decline of overall trends is not yet over, but December PMI purchasing price rallied, explains future PPI continues to extend high speed downlink probability over a few months earlier, had reducedSmall. Expected in January 2012, CPI rose 4.0%,PPI rose 1%.
National Bureau of statistics will be released on 9th January this month of macroeconomic data, we hope that the macroeconomic data is beyond social expectations, macroeconomic also runs its own objective logic. 2012, China's economy will continue in the medium and long term downward trend in economicLong-period downward inertia is still in place. 2, 2012 may be China's reform and opening up 30 years cycle, cycle into the bottom, small bottom of the reform period, currency and other economic cycle is in process at the bottom. 3, and the promotion of the international economic association, the current international economic environment does not allow the growth in China's economy out of the 2008-200 independentSituation. Chinese macroeconomic issues more fundamental issues: 1, China's economy to turn off problem: slower economic growth, economic restructuring and adjustment of industry facing employment difficulties, under the pressure of inflation to the key, and so on. 2, the paradox of China's economic growth: (1) economic growth is out of power support of reform and opening up, look for elements of dividend and expansion support centre, (2) the fiscal deficitPolitical, monetary policy and it is difficult to find a balance between these three (3) main dependent on domestic demand-led industry and consumer associations, rather than rigid under the revenue growth, and (4) capital and other low-efficiency trend appears, the funds needed for efficient and fast growth xiangli, (5) investment growing depletion of resources, and high-speed growth bottlenecks. China's economic growthModerate growth into phase of the economic cycle. (2) issues such as institutional build-up in the growth, reform the last time has not yet come, struggling to find direction and breakthrough of reform, it is difficult to release kinetic energy reform. (3) consumer do not form social and economic, new growth model the lack of conditions. (4) powers the economy has been formed, facing economic powers in external environment andField pressure. 2012 1 China's macro-economic policy trends, financial will continue actively to policy, deficit financing and necessary basis. 2, currency, insisted on prudent policies, but structural essence 3 is moderately easy and flexible, policy direction and three lines: regulation, 4 trillion real estate continues to follow-up projects necessary to complete micro-enterprises, small and medium financial difficulties to the key. 5,May be limited to the people's livelihood on the direction of reform of public service reform of product, price, related to prices of industrial structure and linkage, difficulties in the economic reform of the decision-making. Yuan Xuya, post-doctoral and associate professor, Department of Economics, management science and engineering. Former Hong Kong and Macau security researcher; strategic management group General Manager (and Group Chief), Société Générale securities (601,377, unit) (601,377, unit), Assistant to the General Manager of research and Development Center; de constant management of customers ' securities Director; the people's livelihood, Director of the Institute of securities companies, securities in the northeast (000686, unit) (000686, shares), Director of the Institute of company
swtor credits, Deputy Director of the Institute of Hunan finance securities company, serving the Central Plains, Director of the Institute of securities.Without hexun.com permission, any agency, media, personal, this section shall not be reproduced, published, offenders will be investigated for responsibility.
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